Fall 2025 Booking Trends

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TL;DR: Quick Facts on Fall 2025 Booking Trends
  • September 2025: Occupancy 43% (↓ 6.9 pts YoY), ADR ↓ 9.2%, RevPAR ↓ 11.6% — softer month driven by lighter demand and more price-sensitive guests.
  • October 2025: Occupancy pacing ~2.5 pts behind YoY, ADR ↑ 1.5% — steadier performance with solid pricing discipline and healthier late-month pickup.
  • November 2025 (early look): Occupancy pacing ~0.2 pts behind YoY, ADR ↓ 7.5% — slow start, but historically a short-lead month with strong Thanksgiving compression ahead.
 
Fall Bookings Check-In: What We’re Seeing Across Independent Hotels

 

As summer gave way to fall, traveler behavior told a familiar story — demand hasn’t vanished, it’s just showing up differently. September closed softer than last year, but intent to travel remains strong. Guests are still out there, they’re just booking later and being choosier with price.

 

September: A Softer Month, Not a Slump

 

September wrapped up quieter than expected. Occupancy came in about seven points below last year (43% vs. 50%) and average daily rates dipped around nine percent. That translated to an 11% YoY dip in RevPAR across much of the portfolio.

 

It’s not just us. STR reported similar softness nationally, with early-September holidays and Rosh Hashanah dampening weekdays and group demand. But here’s what matters: the American Hotel & Lodging Association found that nearly half of U.S. adults still plan a leisure trip before year-end. Travel intent is holding steady.

 

What we’re seeing: guests still want to travel, they’re just waiting longer to book and watching price more closely. Shorter booking windows and weekend compression helped balance quieter midweeks, underscoring why flexible, responsive pricing matters more than ever.

 

October: Holding Steady With Smarter Pricing

 

October is pacing more evenly. Occupancy is sitting just a couple points behind last year, and ADR is actually up about 1.5%. That may sound modest, but it’s a sign of better pricing discipline and steadier traveler interest than what we saw in September.

 

Fall always brings closer-in bookings, and that pattern continues. Regional events, crisp weather, and well-timed rate moves are helping sustain late-month demand. Guests are still price-sensitive, but they’re willing to book when value feels clear and credible.

 

November: Early Trends, Plenty of Potential

 

We’re early in the November cycle, so there’s a lot of runway left. Occupancy is pacing just 0.2 points behind last year, with ADR down 7.5%. That’s not unusual. November tends to book close to stay dates, especially around Thanksgiving and early-holiday weekends.

 

Air travel volumes are holding steady, and traveler sentiment for the rest of the year looks solid. As compression shifts closer to arrival, staying nimble on rate and messaging will be key to catching those last-minute planners.

 

The Big Picture: Demand Has Changed, Not Disappeared

 

Across the portfolio, the message is consistent: travel is evolving. Weekends remain strong. Midweeks still show some drag from slower business and group recovery. And while short-term rentals compete on flexibility and price, hotels win on reliability, service, and overall experience; especially when pricing stays aligned with what travelers expect.

 

The fundamentals are solid. Air traffic is steady, intent is there, and last-minute demand is alive and well. The playbook to finish the year strong is simple: stay responsive, lead with value, and meet travelers where they are.

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