Holiday and Mid Winter hotel booking trends

Winter demand is still there. It’s just behaving differently.

Across the TakeUp portfolio, the story of late fall and early winter is being shaped by shorter booking windows, higher price sensitivity, and a clear split between strong weekends and softer midweek demand. If you are looking at forward occupancy and wondering why it feels quiet, you are not alone. Early pacing is being held down by travelers who are waiting longer to commit, then booking closer to arrival once plans solidify.

Below are the key insights we are watching and what they mean for your strategy right now. 

November recap: softer results that reflect broader travel behavior

November closed softer than last year across much of the portfolio.

• Occupancy finished at 31.7%, down from 37.4% year over year
  
• ADR averaged $230.96, about 7.3% lower year over year
  
  

This was less about individual property performance and more about broader fall travel patterns. Across the industry, holiday budgets were notably tighter this year, down roughly 18% from last season. Guests reported taking fewer trips overall, shortening stays, and choosing to stay with family instead of booking lodging. Independent hotels tend to feel these shifts first because shoulder periods rely heavily on discretionary leisure demand.

The good news is that demand did not vanish. It moved later. Many properties still saw healthy pickup closer to stay dates across weekdays and weekends, consistent with the short booking windows we have tracked since early fall. 

December early look: early pacing is behind, but winter books late

December is pacing behind last year to start.

• Occupancy is currently 19.6% versus 22.7% at this time in 2024
  
  
• ADR is currently $193.06 versus $218.37 last year
  
  

This fits the short lead behavior that has defined Q4. With tighter discretionary budgets and economic uncertainty, guests are delaying decisions and weighing value more heavily, especially around weekends and holiday adjacent dates.

It is also important to remember that December historically books closer in than most months. Early softness rarely predicts final performance. Christmas and New Year’s frequently compress sharply with meaningful last-minute pickup, and we expect that pattern to continue. 

January forward look: right on schedule for a last-minute month

January is trending right in line with expectations for this point in the cycle. Much like last year, most January revenue typically does not materialize until mid-December onward. This is one of the most last-minute periods of the year.

Because booking behavior is compressed, rate positioning matters even more. A thoughtful strategy that supports value midweek while keeping room to test upward when demand signals appear is key to capturing the pickup when it arrives. 

The four trends defining winter booking behavior

1) Shorter booking windows are the new normal

Travelers are waiting longer to commit. That suppresses early pacing, but creates meaningful late-stage pickup. If you rely on early pacing to feel confident, winter can look worse than it is until the final stretch. 

2) Price sensitivity is elevated

Guests are comparing more options and reacting strongly to rate positioning. This is where flexible floors, especially midweek, do real work by capturing short-lead demand without giving away revenue across the board. 

3) Fall travel softened, especially for independent hotels

Tighter budgets, fewer leisure trips, and shorter stays hit the shoulder periods hardest. The effect is not evenly distributed, but independent properties feel it most directly. 

4) Weekends are holding stronger than weekdays

This pattern held across November and continues heading into winter. Weekends remain the most resilient demand segment, while midweek needs more deliberate value framing and strategy. 

What to do now: value forward, with controlled testing room

When booking windows shrink and price sensitivity rises, the winners are not the properties that drop rates the fastest. The winners are the properties that stay positioned to convert late demand while still protecting revenue when it spikes.

That usually means:

• Keep midweek value strong so you remain competitive when guests book late
  
  
• Avoid locking into overly aggressive discounting too far out, especially for weekends
  
  
• Maintain thoughtful testing room within your bounds, because late pickup often arrives in bursts and you need flexibility to capture it
  
  

The winter takeaway

Winter travel is not disappearing. It is compressing.

Early pacing may look soft, but the underlying patterns point to late bookings, high comparison shopping, and a continued split where weekends outperform and midweek needs sharper positioning. The goal is to stay value forward without giving away revenue, so when demand shows up late, you are ready for it.

And if you’re ready to see how TakeUp can help your property adapt to real-time market shifts, get in touch with our team.