Is the U.S. hotel industry expected to grow in 2026?

Yes, but barely. Forecasts point to occupancy in the 62 to 64 percent range, ADR growth around 1 to 3 percent, and RevPAR growth near flat. In other words, the market is moving, but it is not exactly sprinting.

What segments will drive hotel demand in 2026?

Corporate transient and small group travel are gaining strength again. Leisure demand is still there, but it is no longer powering the entire market. International inbound remains weaker than pre-pandemic levels, which impacts major cities.

How should hotels approach pricing if ADR growth is slowing?

Hotels should focus on precision instead of pressure. Rate increases will be more selective. Balance becomes the real superpower. You want pricing that optimizes both occupancy and rate, not pricing that pushes one at the expense of the other.

What traveler behaviors should revenue teams watch?

Revenue teams should watch for later booking windows, stronger demand for personalization, and more value-driven decision making. Guests will still spend, but they want to feel confident about where their money is going. Experience and clarity matter.

Can AI really help with revenue strategy in a slower market?

Absolutely. When the market is calm, good revenue managers do fine. When the market tightens, the ones with true demand intelligence pull ahead. AI helps you forecast more accurately, react faster to changes in pickup, and find the rate and occupancy balance that maximizes revenue.

Do I need to change my hotel pricing strategy for 2026?

If your current strategy depends on strong across-the-board rate growth or predictable leisure demand, yes. If your strategy is built on segmentation, local market awareness, and agile pricing, you are already headed in the right direction.

Article
01.16.26

How to Tell If Your Hotel Room Rate Is Wrong When the Market Keeps Changing

If you manage hotel pricing long enough, you learn to trust your instincts.

But there are moments when even experienced revenue managers hesitate.

Pickup feels uneven
Competitors are moving rates unexpectedly
Search demand looks strong but bookings lag
Or pacing is just slightly off in a way you cannot explain

That is usually when the question creeps in: Is this rate actually right for this night?

This is where many pricing mistakes happen. Not because the rate is wildly wrong, but because it has not been pressure tested against current market conditions.

Common Signs Your Rate Needs a Pressure Test

Revenue managers rarely question rates randomly. Doubt usually shows up in specific situations.

You might want to pressure test a rate if:

Occupancy is higher than expected but pickup has slowed
You are pacing behind last year despite similar demand signals
Competitors are holding higher rates and still booking
You lowered rates but did not see the expected demand response
You feel like the market moved and your pricing did not

These are not gut feelings. They are signals. The challenge is translating those signals into a clear pricing decision.

Why Comp Sets and Gut Checks Fall Short

When pricing feels uncertain, most teams default to familiar tools.

They check the comp set
They scan OTAs
They look at historical rates for the same date

The problem is that none of these tell you what the market will actually pay tonight. Comp sets show what others are listing, not what guests are booking. Historical data reflects past conditions, not current demand.

Gut checks are shaped by fear of losing bookings or missing revenue.

What is missing is a real time assessment of whether a rate holds up under today’s demand.

What Revenue Managers Actually Need in These Moments

When the market feels noisy, revenue managers are not looking for more data.

They are looking for a clear answer to one question: Does this rate hold up under real demand right now?

That is the role of TakeUp’s rate pressure test. A pressure test does not replace strategy. It validates whether a specific rate for a specific night is aligned with current market willingness to pay.

What TakeUp’s Rate Pressure Test Evaluates

A proper rate pressure test looks beyond surface level comparisons.

It evaluates:

Real time demand for that check in date
Booking behavior and price sensitivity patterns
How similar properties are actually performing
Whether the rate is aggressive, conservative, or market aligned

The output should be simple and decisive.

Too high
Too low
Or supported by the market

And most importantly, what that means economically.

Introducing the TakeUp Rate Pressure Test

The TakeUp Rate Pressure Test was built for this exact moment of uncertainty.

It allows you to enter a nightly rate and check in date and see whether that price holds up against real time market conditions.

Not based on opinions. Not based on averages. Not based on static rules. But based on how guests are responding to price right now.

It is the same pricing intelligence TakeUp uses to make daily pricing decisions for independent hotels and inns.

When to Use a Rate Pressure Test

Revenue teams use pressure testing most effectively when:

Publishing rates for high demand weekends
Re evaluating soft nights that should be booking better
Sanity checking rates before making aggressive moves
Explaining pricing decisions internally or to ownership

It becomes a discipline, not a one off check.

Pressure Test Your Rate

If you are questioning a rate because the market feels different, that is the signal.

👉 Run a pressure test with TakeUp’s complimentary rate assessment tool. See if the rate holds up. And make the next pricing decision with clarity instead of doubt.

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